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Age of moving coins as a predictor of the bottom : Bitcoin

Research suggests that the age of coins being spent – in particularly the 1 year+ UTXO – is on the rise.

Holders are getting stronger: over half of all bitcoin hasn’t been moved in a year. 20% hasn’t moved for five years, and much of that may be lost. Delphi Digital uses this information to forecast the bottom of the market is close.

Before we go further, a quick definition of terms is in order. Every time bitcoins are ‘spent’ – i.e. moved – new outputs are created on the blockchain. These outputs are chunks of coins that may be combined in a new transaction, or sent individually; it doesn’t matter. Every bitcoin transaction has inputs – coins owned by the sender – and outputs, or the result(s) of that transaction. The outputs are known as Unspent Transaction Outputs, or UTXO.

The UTXOs used for a new transaction may have been sat in their addresses for just a few minutes, or they could have been hodler coins left dormant for years. Thanks to the nature of the blockchain, and the fact that every transaction is timestamped, we can gain some very interesting insights from the ages of coins being spent. For example, if a coin hasn’t moved for five years, you know the owner acquired it back when prices were a fraction of what they were today. It’s not a precise science, but it gives us a broad sense of the initial value of coins being moved. And that, in turn, gives us a sense of whether hodlers might be tempted to sell at current prices.

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