Crypto Remains In Lull, But Analysts Still Predicting
2019 is finally upon the cryptosphere, which was beaten and bruised to hell and back during 2018. And with this new year, it seems that the powers that be — the whales, Wall Street institutions, industry insiders, and purported manipulators — have collectively decided that to impose a Bitcoin price lull. In fact, a recent report from CoinDesk revealed that BTC’s volatility is down 98% year-on-year, as crypto continues to sip on the proverbial sangria.
Eric Ervin, the chief executive of Blockforce Capital, recently explained that Bitcoin’s overall volatility has been decreasing, contrary to short-term, multi-percent bouts of buying and selling pressure that has blessed cryptocurrencies in recent months. Ervin noted:
Its rolling 14-day volatility has been steadily declining — trending downward from a peak of 140 on November 28th to today’s value of 60… This is the lowest volatility we’ve seen since mid-November 2018.
Despite the volatility, astute crypto analysts have still sought to determine where the flagship cryptocurrency is headed next. Per a piece from Charles Bovaird, a contributor at Forbes, a number of leading commentators have made predictions that span from $3,000 to $5,000.
Mati Greenspan, eToro’s in-house crypto-analyst, noted that he’s seen BTC enter a “mini range” between $3,500 and $4,000, as the cryptocurrency market enters a period of wider consolidation. Greenspan added that Bitcoin is also situated in a broader range of $3,000 to $5,000. However, the asset has struggled to reach the extremities of this range in recent weeks, which isn’t necessarily a good or bad thing.
Ervin, the aforementioned head of Blockforce, explained that there’s a chance that a “decent breakout” is inbound. The crypto investor, formerly of Smith Barney and Citi, noted that BTC has likely entered an “early-stage pennant formation,” adding that he expects that a breakout to either previous lows or $4,000 and beyond is entirely possible. Ervin noted that the chance that a breakout occurs in the “near future” is “high.”
Jon Pearlstone, who claimed that Bitcoin’s waning volume could be a “red flag,” noted that a move to $5,000 is possible if $4,000 is retested. However, if the world’s first cryptocurrency doesn’t take a stab at surmounting $4,000, Pearlstone noted that BTC could collapse to $3,000.
Such bouts of price action, which may amount to 15% price swings, interestingly aren’t out of the realm of possibility. Josh Rager, an American cryptocurrency trader that sports over 24,000 followers on Twitter, claimed that per his analysis, volatility may be inbound.
$BTC Daily Chart
After two low volume days of consolidation (see circled in the chart)
Bitcoin has shown to have at least $200+ price action within the following day
We’ll see if Friday/Saturday holds true and allows for more volatility pic.twitter.com/Xkv6xtso4j
— Josh Rager 📈 (@Josh_Rager) January 17, 2019
More specifically, Rager, who advises blockchain upstarts TokenBacon and Blackwave, noted that due to the past two days of consolidation, Friday and Saturday may beckon in “more volatility” for Bitcoin.
At the time of writing, per data from Coin Price Watch, BTC is valued at $3,715.
Where’s The Bitcoin Bottom?
All this analysis begs the question — has Bitcoin found a long-term foothold yet?
Unfortunately, in the eyes of many commentators, no, the leading cryptocurrency, along with its altcoin brethren, have yet to reach a true bottom.
Per previous Ethereum World News reports, Murad Mahmudov recently drew attention to Bitcoin’s historical price action, drawing lines between the bear market of 2014/2015, specifically the “Baby Capitulation and Final Capitulation” events, and today’s market. Long story short, through a mashup of historical and technical analysis, the respected Princeton graduate claimed that BTC could fall to as low as $1,700-$2,200 by Spring 2019.
Moon Overlord, a respected crypto trader, echoed Mahmudov’s thoughts. The pseudonymous commentator explained there’s a fleeting chance that Bitcoin has another “substantial draw-down” ahead of itself, also citing historical data. As the harrowing, yet also optimistic adage goes, “history does not repeat itself, but it rhymes.” So, if previous trends prove to be an accurate indicator, the flagship cryptocurrency could fall to as low as $1,700 before another “knock your socks off” rally.
BTC physical coin Title Image Courtesy of Marco Verch Via Flickr