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Downside Expected (Bitcoin Price Analysis)


On yesterday’s open the evaluation of the cryptocurrency market cap was at around $103,370,883,000. From there the evaluation has increased to $115,442,000,000 at its highest point. From there the evaluation has retreated slightly and has fallen today to around $111,720,805,000 which was the lowest point so far as the evaluation again started increasing from there and is now around the same levels as on yesterday’s high.

  • Market Cap: $114,600,199,391
  • 24h Vol: $17,774,031,570
  • BTC Dominance: 54.2%

Looking at the global chart you can see that the evaluation encountered some resistance yesterday at around $115B area and has tried to go past it three times before a minor retracement. Today another attempt has been made but the evaluation has yet again started falling back after the interaction which indicated that there is strong resistance at the mentioned level.

The market is in green with an average percentage of change among top 100 coins ranging from 3.4%-4.9%. The biggest gainers are in double digits like EOS with an increase of 14.35%,  Waves with 25.58% and MobileGo with an increase of 26.62%.

Bitcoin’s market dominance has consequently decreased by around 0.77% – from 54.92 on yesterday’s open to 54.15% where it is currently sitting.

Bitcoin Price Analysis BTC/USD

From yesterday’s open at $3318.6 the price of Bitcoin has increased by 9.72% measured to the current levels at $3640.9. The price did go slightly higher to $3691.6 today but since the price has retraced to the levels on which it is currently sitting.

Looking at the hourly chart you can see that the price hasn’t interacted with the bold black line nor the blue horizontal line before spiking up again. Instead, the price fell to the minor horizontal support level which is why it failed to exceed the prior high, as no strong support was established. Because the price failed to exceed the prior high and is currently struggling to keep up the upward momentum I believe it will go back down from here as the Y wave should end soon.

Maybe the price will continue its upward trajectory for and exceed the prior high level but I don’t believe that we are going to see another large increase as we did previously, but instead another minor one bearly creating new highs.

Zooming into the 15 min time frame you can see that the price has retraced in an ABC manner which is why another trend continuation occurred but now as the price is around the same levels as yesterday it is unclear whether or not this increase was the end but if now we might see a similar situation like on the higher time-frame.

Zooming out to the 4-hour chart you can see that I have encountered this whole move from as a WXY correction and if my count is correct more downside should be expected from here.

 

The target for that decrease would be at around $2926 horizontal support level which is the most significant horizontal support so far and if the price want to go further to recover a proper retest on a strong support is needed.

 

 

Market sentiment 

Hourly chart technicals are signaling a buy.

Pivot points 

S3 2620.3
S2 3085.1
S1 3355.1
P 3549.9
R1 3819.9
R2 4014.7
R3 4479.5

Conclusion

The cryptocurrency market has recovered slightly but I don’t believe that this is the start of the long-awaited recovery. Looking at my Elliott Wave projection below you can see that I am expecting another drop before the price starts to recover. The price has fallen to the levels of the mid-range of the support zone so I believe that it is going to go to its lower levels for a proper retest before the recovery starts.



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